Production Outlook
Tanzania's 2025 cashew crop is forecast at 230,000–250,000 MT of RCN, representing a recovery from the 2024 weather-affected harvest. Mtwara and Lindi regions expect normal volumes, while Ruvuma anticipates a 12% increase due to expanded planting under the Presidential Cashew Initiative of 2022.
Price Forecast
The XCASHEW analytics model projects W320 kernels to trade in the $2,050–$2,350/MT range through 2025, with W180 remaining elevated at $3,800–$4,200/MT. The key variable is Indian domestic production — a good Indian crop would moderate import demand and put downward pressure on prices from August onwards.
Emerging Buyer Markets
Three markets are generating significant new demand for East African cashews in 2025:
- China: Rising middle-class snack consumption has made China the fastest-growing cashew import market, with 340,000MT imported in 2024. Chinese buyers are increasingly sourcing certified product directly from Africa.
- Middle East: Gulf region demand for premium grades (W180, W210) is growing at 8% annually, driven by gifting culture and premium retail expansion.
- UK Post-Brexit: The UK's independent trade policy has opened new opportunities for Tanzanian exporters under the UK-EAC trade framework, with 0% duty on processed kernels.
Opportunities on XCASHEW
The XCASHEW platform is currently connecting verified Tanzanian exporters with buyers across 28 countries. Create a free account to access the full marketplace, price intelligence tools, and direct buyer matching.
